Preprints
There are 8003 Preprints listed.
Improvement of Daily Temperature Forecasts from a Prediction Market
Published: 2026-10-04
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Natural Resource Economics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Prediction markets aggregate and distill the collective views of participants who have a financial stake in being correct. They have been shown to produce more accurate forecasts in realms like election results, which are not easily amenable to mechanistic modeling because they entail forecasting human behavior. It is far less clear that prediction markets should improve the accuracy of [...]
Hydrogen gas (H₂) artificially generated during soil-gas sampling - Technical report
Published: 2026-10-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Surface gas geochemistry methods, including soil gas measurements, are widely used for natural hydrogen (H₂) exploration. It is known that H₂ can be artificially generated by mechanical friction during installation of soil-gas probes. However, it is frequently considered that artificial H₂ is produced only by drill bit rotation, although there are no systematic studies about its generation during [...]
Observational uncertainty is the primary source of climate uncertainty in impacts projections
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geography
Projections of future climate damages underpin environmental policy and risk management but depend on inherently uncertain climate data. Uncertainty in historical climate observations, used to train impact models and calibrate climate projections to the observed record, is rarely considered. We show this “observational uncertainty” contributes more than the spread across or within global climate [...]
A bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Projections of climate change and climate impacts requires bias-corrected, downscaled output from ensembles of earth system models (ESMs). Potential impacts are uncertain due to modeling differences between ESMs, internal variability stemming from the chaos of the earth system, and differences in the historical reference datasets used to bias-corrected and downscale ESM output. Here, we introduce [...]
Satellite-Based CO and NOx Emission Estimates from South-Central Chilean Plantation Fires
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present top-down CO and NOx emission estimates for a south-central Chilean fire from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI observations. Applying the Cross-Sectional Flux method to CO and the Exponentially Modified Gaussian method to NO2, with uncertainty propagated through 500-member Monte Carlo ensembles, we retrieve a median CO flux of 1,273 kg s⁻¹ (95% CI: 676–1,843 kg s⁻¹) and a median NOx flux of 7,505 g [...]
Detecting Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions Using Deep Learning and TEMPO Satellite Imagery
Published: 2026-10-25
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
NASA's Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument provides hourly daytime observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) across North America. These observations could support independent, facility-level monitoring of power plant nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, filling gaps when continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) measurements fail or facilities are not [...]
A Transformer-Based Surrogate for Distributed Groundwater Dynamics with Zero-Shot Cross-Basin Transfer and Precipitation-Regime Data Augmentation
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large-scale physically based groundwater models generate spatially distributed simulations, but their cost limits the regional datasets available for training artificial-intelligence-based surrogates. Here, we developed and systematically evaluated a groundwater-adapted PredFormer surrogate for regional ParFlow-CLM simulations. The framework uses temporal-first factorized attention, [...]
Navigating Uncertain Futures: Dilemmas and Opportunities in Climate and Health in LMICs
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Environmental Public Health, Medicine and Health Sciences, Public Health
Climate-health planning in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) is constrained by structural health-system vulnerabilities, cross-sectoral coordination challenges, and trade-offs that remain invisible within sectoral planning processes. This study addresses three methodological gaps: the scarcity of multi-regional, LMIC-led climate-health futures; the absence of methods that translate [...]
Climate resilience from long-term low till adoption in US farms
Published: 2026-10-04
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Low-intensity tillage (low till) has expanded rapidly in the United States since 2000. Evidence on its yield impacts has come mainly from field experiments and has been limited to short time horizons. Using satellite-based observations from more than 40 million field-year pairs across the U.S. Corn Belt from 1999-2023, we demonstrate that yield gains continue to accrue with longer duration of [...]
Robust warming rates, marginal evidence of acceleration and unstable extrapolation: a reproducible reanalysis of statistical trend models for the Berkeley Earth global temperature record
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Models
Simple trend fits to the global temperature record are widely used to summarise warming, but their uncertainty, their evidence for acceleration and their predictive value are often overstated. We re-analysed an earlier linear and quadratic analysis of the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean record (1850–2024) that reported in-sample R² values of 0.74 and 0.90 and a post-1970 warming rate of 0.194 °C per [...]
Random-split validation overstates the skill of machine-learning models of global coral bleaching severity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Marine Biology, Oceanography, Statistical Methodology
Global compilations of coral bleaching surveys are increasingly used to train machine-learning models of bleaching severity, but such models are often evaluated with random train–test splits that ignore duplicated records, spatial dependence and differences among contributing survey programmes. We re-examined an earlier analysis of the Global Coral Bleaching Database (BCO-DMO dataset 773466) that [...]
Human Intelligence Forming in the Rhythm of Solar Activity
Published: 2025-05-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biology, Earth Sciences, Neuroscience and Neurobiology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Planetary Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
This study relates to environmental biology and examines a possible link between atmospheric radiation ecology, modulated by space weather, and human cognitive development by analyzing correlations of solar activity phenomena with various indicators of intellectual potential. A novel metric, the Proton Flare Index (PFI), is introduced to quantify the influence of high-energy solar proton events [...]
The Dynamics of Nonlinear Triads of Rossby-Haurwitz and Gravity Shallow Water Waves on the Sphere
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the interplay between nonlinearity and multiple scales is one of the cornerstones of geophysical fluids and climate modelling. Nonlinear interactions between atmospheric waves of disparate scales, from fast inertia-gravity waves to slow planetary-scale Rossby-Haurwitz waves, are central to energy cascades and to low-frequency phenomena. Yet, they remain poorly understood beyond [...]
Three thresholds and a computer-assisted phase diagram for the spectral stability of periodic hydroelastic Whitham waves
Published: 2026-09-26
Subjects: Glaciology, Non-linear Dynamics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Partial Differential Equations
We study the spectral stability of 2π-periodic travelling waves of the hydroelastic Whitham equation, a scalar model with the full linear dispersion relation of water waves under a thin elastic sheet (e.g. a floating ice cover), as a function of the flexural rigidity T. Besides the modulational cluster at the origin, the zero-amplitude spectrum has, on an interval of T, a collision of opposite [...]
Quantifying volumetric erosion from symbolic expression of landslide morphology
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide volumetric erosion is fundamental to regional sediment budgets and downstream hazard assessment, yet accurately constraining material mobilization remains a primary bottleneck in Earth-system research. Legacy area–volume relations introduce substantial uncertainty when applied across heterogeneous landslide populations. Here, we examine whether the erosional and accumulation (i.e., [...]