Preprints
There are 8003 Preprints listed.
Electrification can trigger rapid growth in peak demand uncertainty
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering
Electrification of space heating shifts weather-sensitive energy use onto power systems, driving peak electricity demand and its uncertainty. We quantify uncertainty in residential and commercial peak electricity demand across the contiguous United States by generating 256,200 county-level, hourly demand simulations across 14 heat pump penetration levels and 100 climate trajectories. penetrations [...]
Attribution of climate extremes with global temperature regressions: accounting for uncertainty from internal variability
Published: 2026-03-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing is an important goal in climate science. Regression of local conditions on global temperatures is a popular statistical approach, but whether the uncertainty derived from observations alone can reflect the range of outcomes possible due to internal variability remains unclear. Here, we use large ensembles from three climate models as an [...]
Reconstructing extension, subduction, and lateral extrusion in the Central Tethysides (Iran, Afghanistan)
Published: 2026-01-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
The supercontinent Pangea enclosed an internal Tethys ocean whose destruction by subduction formed the Tethysides orogenic belt, exposed in the Alpine-Himalayan mountain range. The Tethyan realm consisted of multiple oceanic basins separated by microcontinents, and their tectonic reconstruction has proved instrumental in understanding subduction geodynamics, back-arc basin evolution, and [...]
Tail Skill and Ensemble-Configuration Sensitivity in Six-Hour Precipitation Postprocessing
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Meteorology
Statistical postprocessing supports probabilistic precipitation forecasting. Comparing methods requires separating forecast performance from the effects of case selection, ensemble configuration, and scoring convention. We develop a paired diagnostic workflow that separates observation conditioning from aggregation, decomposes model and raw-ensemble responses to member reduction, and examines [...]
Erosion sensitivity of rock organic carbon oxidation reinforces CO2 release at high erosion rates
Published: 2026-10-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Oxidation of rock organic carbon (OCpetro) can exert a substantial control on atmospheric CO2 over geological timescales, yet the erosion sensitivity of this reaction has proved challenging to isolate and quantify due to the covariation of erosion with other environmental variables in many existing datasets. Here we apply the rhenium (Re) proxy to quantify OCpetro oxidation across a three [...]
Robust clustering of variable-duration seismic waveforms using an incremental dynamic time warping framework
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Different geophysical processes generate characteristic seismic waveforms. Identifying similar waveforms therefore helps to distinguish between different source mechanisms and to monitor seismic activity in settings ranging from volcanoes and glaciers to urban environments. In many applications, however, the seismic event types are unknown and no labelled training data is available. Then, [...]
Worldwide water gaps: Using relative elevation modelling to identify transverse drainages
Published: 2026-10-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Transverse drainages are stream reaches that flow through, rather than around, topographic high grounds. The development of transverse drainage is intimately tied to the tectonic history of an area, but the identification of transverse reaches has historically been a matter of subjective opinion. Here, a GIS-based method is presented that uses relative elevation modelling to identify and quantify [...]
Assessment of SWOT Systematic Errors and Calibration Strategy
Published: 2026-10-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The SWOT KaRIN instrument provides wide-swath Sea Surface Height measurements affected by cross-swath systematic errors largely driven by thermo-elastic distortions and attitude knowledge errors. Using more than two years of science-orbit data, we evaluate a calibration procedure structured in two principal steps to estimate the systematic errors. The first step applies an empirical modeling [...]
Harmonized global to regional gridded methane inventories in a discrete global grid framework
Published: 2026-06-03
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Heterogeneous gridded environmental datasets are increasingly used in Earth system modeling, atmospheric studies, and spatial analytics, but differences in coordinate reference systems, spatial resolutions, sector classifications, reporting units, and data formats hinder interoperability and cross-dataset comparison. Conventional latitude–longitude grids further introduce unequal cell areas that [...]
Hydrogeology and Water Quality of the Unconsolidated Aquifer System in the Lower Fall Creek Valley, Tompkins County, New York
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Tompkins County and the Town of Dryden, conducted a hydrogeologic investigation of the lower Fall Creek unconsolidated aquifer system in Tompkins County, New York. This study is part of an ongoing effort to characterize major valley-fill aquifers in the region to support sustainable groundwater management. The lower Fall Creek valley, encompassing [...]
TiMEpy: A Python Package for Analyzing Tidal Modulation of Fast and Slow Earthquakes
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tidal stresses provide a natural perturbation for investigating earthquake nucleation and fault properties. We present TiMEpy, an open-source Python package for analyzing tidal modulation of ordinary earthquakes and slow earthquakes. The package integrates catalog selection and optional declustering, conversion of tidal strain to resolved fault stress, and analyses of earthquake occurrence as a [...]
Time-mean Tropical Circulation in an Idealized Moist GCM: Dependence on Zonally Asymmetric Forcings
Published: 2026-10-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study investigates how the time-mean tropical circulation is affected by zonally varying surface boundary conditions in an idealized moist aquaplanet model. We compare a zonally symmetric control with two perturbation cases driven by prescribed zonal wavenumber-1 heating and cooling patterns of varying intensities, creating tropical warm and cold pools. The forcings substantially slow the [...]
Mantle, lithospheric and crustal controls on large igneous province magmatism: petrogenesis of the Antrim Lava Group, North Atlantic Igneous Province
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Volcanology
Continental large igneous province (LIP) volcanism is the result of long-lived interactions between mantle plumes, lithospheric topography, ascending melts, and crustal lithologies. Disentangling the competing effects of such factors is required to understand the petrogenesis of LIP magmas and ultimately the controls on their geochemical and isotopic diversity and on ore-forming processes. The [...]
Seasonal variation of earthquake source characteristics of the long-duration Palghar swarm, western India
Published: 2026-09-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
A swarm sequence initiated in November 2018 in the Palghar region near the western coast of India, and continued with high intensity for two years. About 8300 earthquakes were found with horizontal and depth uncertainties of ≤ 1.5 km after relocation. The earthquakes were distributed along two narrow N-S oriented clusters, separated by ~5 km. We performed time-domain regional waveform full moment [...]
Pedogenic magnetic enhancement in a Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol) formed on slate in the Brazilian Cerrado: an integrated record of repeated wetting–drying cycles
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal wetting–drying cycles in tropical soils can drive redox reactions that control the formation and transformation of ferrimagnetic iron oxides. In the profile-scale case study, we investigated a well-drained, clayey Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol/ Ferralsol) developed on weakly magnetic slate in the Brazilian Cerrado. The profile was sampled to 190 cm depth in the dry season (July 2023) and at [...]