Preprints
Search for earthquake (501 results)
Large earthquakes are more predictable than smaller ones
Published: 2025-01-29
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large earthquakes have been viewed as highly chaotic events regardless of their magnitude, making their prediction intrinsically challenging. Here, we develop a mathematical tool to incorporate multiscale physics, capable of describing both deterministic and chaotic systems, to model earthquake rupture. Our findings suggest that the chaotic behavior of seismic dynamics, that is, its sensitivity [...]
DeepGEM-EGF: A Bayesian strategy for joint estimates of source-time functions and empirical Green’s functions
Published: 2025-01-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences
An earthquake record is the convolution of source radiation, path propagation and site effects, and instrument response. Isolating the source component requires solving an ill-posed inverse problem. Whether the instability of inferred source parameters arises from varying properties of the source, or from approximations we introduce in solving the problem, remains an open question. Such [...]
Fingerprinting subduction margins using PCA profiles: A data science approach to assessing earthquake hazard
Published: 2025-01-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Tectonics and Structure
Giant earthquakes (MW ≥ 8.5) along subduction margins pose great hazards to coastal societies. While it is generally accepted that geological margin properties play a role, the controls on giant earthquake occurrence remain undetermined. Their long intermittence times and the comparatively short earthquake record obscure any correlations between margin properties and seismicity. This work [...]
Shallow fault zone structure affects rupture dynamics and ground motions of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence to regional distances
Published: 2025-01-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic faults are surrounded by damaged rocks with reduced rigidity and enhanced attenuation. These damaged fault zone structures can amplify seismic waves and affect earthquake dynamics, yet they are typically omitted in physics-based regional ground motion simulations. We report on the significant effects of a shallow, flower-shaped fault zone in foreshock-mainshock 3D dynamic rupture models [...]
Readapting PhaseNet to Laboratory Earthquakes: AEsNet, a Robust Acoustic Emission Picker Illuminating Seismic Signatures of Different Fault Gouge Materials
Published: 2025-01-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
Laboratory acoustic emissions (AEs) represent microslip events analogous to small- scale earthquakes, providing valuable insights into the mechanics of frictional instabilities. With technological advancements in acoustic monitoring, thousands of AE waveforms can now be collected in minutes of experimental time, requiring efficient methods for their detection and analysis. In this study, we [...]
A semi-automated method for constructing three-dimensional models of complex fault networks
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Fault geometry and the connectivity between faults at depth are both important controls on the nucleation, propagation and arrest of earthquake rupture, so modelling these parameters accurately is essential to models of the earthquake cycle. However, simulations involving complex three-dimensional (3D) fault systems rarely explore the sensitivity of results to uncertainties in geometry and [...]
Dynamic earthquake source inversion with Generative Adversarial Network priors
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Dynamic source inversion of earthquakes consists of inferring frictional parameters and initial stress on a fault consistent with recorded seismological and geodetic data and with dynamic earthquake rupture models. In a Bayesian inversion approach, the nonlinear relationship between model parameters and data requires a computationally demanding Monte Carlo (MC) approach. As the computational cost [...]
A simplified physics model for estimating subsurface CO2 storage resources constrained by fault slip potential
Published: 2024-12-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) at rates of several gigatonnes (Gt) per year may be needed to mitigate climate change. However, one major uncertainty is that the risk of injection-induced earthquakes may grow with this scale of deployment. In this work, we develop a tool, named CO2BLOCKSEISM, which uses simplified physics models to screen subsurface storage resources constrained by fault [...]
Leaky faults modulated magma ascent and seismicity during the 2022 São Jorge (Azores) volcanic unrest
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
Understanding the signatures and mechanisms of failed volcanic eruptions is vital for mapping magma plumbing systems and forecasting volcanic hazards. Geological structures like fractures and faults are key to guiding magma, but their mechanisms remain unclear due to limited 3-D mapping of faults in volcanic regions and sufficiently precise earthquake locations. The triple-junction setting of the [...]
3D dynamic rupture modeling of the 2021 Haiti earthquake used to constrain stress conditions and fault system complexity
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2021 Mw7.2 Haiti earthquake was a devastating event which occurred within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault Zone (EPGFZ). It is not well-understood why neither the 2021 nor the prior Mw7.0 2010 earthquake were simple strike slip events and, instead, ruptured with distinct patches of dip slip and strike slip motion on largely separate fault planes. We develop several 3D dynamic rupture [...]
Comprehensive global dataset of 300,000 uniformly processed shear-wave splitting measurements with regular updates
Published: 2024-12-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic anisotropy can inform us about convective flow in the mantle. Shear waves traveling through azimuthally anisotropic regions split into fast and slow pulses, and measuring the resulting shear-wave splitting provides some of the most direct insights into Earth’s interior dynamics. Shear-wave splitting is a constraint for path-averaged azimuthal anisotropy and is often studied regionally, [...]
Numerical modelling of lithosphere-asthenosphere interaction and intraplate deformation in the Gulf of Guinea
Published: 2024-10-31
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
To present day, the phenomenon of intraplate deformation and its associated earthquakes remain elusive. In this work, we argue that intraplate deformation may result from the interaction between lithospheric and upper mantle dynamic processes. To this extent, we targeted the Gulf of Guinea and adjacent Western Africa, a region with both low plate velocities and clear asthenosphere dynamics, [...]
Statistical properties and modelled duration of an intracontinental earthquake sequence: 2021 Mw 5.9 Woods Point earthquake, Australia
Published: 2024-10-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences
We investigate the 2021 moment magnitude (Mw) 5.9 Woods Point earthquake aftershock sequence (WPAS) in Victoria, Australia. WPAS Gutenberg-Richter b-values range from 0.76 to 1.07 and depend upon the earthquake magnitude type used (Mw vs Ml) and minimum completeness magnitude (Mc). The WPAS Modified Omori’s law p-value of 0.83~0.84 suggests slower aftershock decay rates, while the modelled [...]
Multi-Phase Tectonic and Volcanic Evolution of a Nascent Backarc Rift: Impacts of Spreading Centre Reorientation, Subduction Reversals, Ridge Collisions, and Asymmetric Slab Rollback on the Northern New Hebrides Backarc
Published: 2024-10-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Intra-oceanic backarc are characterized by crustal accretion along seafloor spreading axes; however, little is known about the initial rifting of the over-riding plate prior to the establishment of stable seafloor spreading. To address this knowledge gap, we investigate the ~3.5 Ma backarc troughs in the New Hebrides Subduction Zone. Using available bathymetric data, we developed [...]
Controls of Dynamic and Static Stress Changes and Aseismic Slip on Delayed Earthquake Triggering: Application to the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence
Published: 2024-10-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Dynamic earthquake triggering often involves a time delay relative to the peak stress perturbation. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for delayed triggering. We compute detailed spatiotemporal changes in dynamic and static Coulomb stresses at the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest mainshock hypocenter, induced by the Mw 5.4 foreshock, using 3D dynamic rupture models. The [...]