Preprints
Search for earthquake (550 results)
Effects of Stress and Friction Heterogeneity on Spatiotemporal Complexity of Seismic and Aseismic Slip on Strike-Slip Faults
Published: 2025-02-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical and laboratory models of earthquake cycles on faults governed by rate-and-state friction often show cycle-invariant behavior, while natural faults exhibit considerable variability in slip history. Possible explanations include heterogeneities in fault stress and frictional properties. We investigate how various types of heterogeneity in simulations of quasi-dynamic sequences of seismic [...]
Petrographical evidence of the >1000 km voyage of a white pumice raft that arrived at the Ogasawara and Nansei Islands after the October 2023 earthquakes in the southern Izu Islands
Published: 2025-02-11
Subjects: Volcanology
An earthquake swarm occurred at Sofu Seamount near Izu-Torishima in the Izu-Ogasawara (Bonin) Arc, Japan, on 8 October 2023, followed by the arrival of unexpectedly-large tsunamis over a wide area of the Pacific coast of southwest Japan. On 20 October, aerial observation identified floating pumice rafts extending for ~80 km in the area the seamount, which were subsequently sampled and found to [...]
A New Theory of Global Climate and Ecosystem Change Based on Planetary Orbital Variations
Published: 2025-02-05
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Traditional climate change research has primarily focused on internal factors of Earth, particularly the impact of human activities on greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes the "Mao's Theory of Global Climate and Ecosystem Change Based on Planetary Orbital Variations", which suggests that changes in Earth's climate and ecosystems are primarily driven by the orbital variations of external [...]
The b value as a strain meter: a comparison of the 1982-1984 and 2005-2024 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei - Italy
Published: 2025-02-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Campi Flegrei caldera has experienced several episodes of volcanic unrest during the last few centuries, most notably in 1982-1984 and 2005-present. These periods of unrest are characterized by ground uplift, seismic swarms, and increased degassing. In this study, we compare the seismicity and associated b value variations during the 1982-1984 and 2005-2024 unrest periods. The b value is [...]
Large earthquakes are more predictable than smaller ones
Published: 2025-01-29
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large earthquakes have been viewed as highly chaotic events regardless of their magnitude, making their prediction intrinsically challenging. Here, we develop a mathematical tool to incorporate multiscale physics, capable of describing both deterministic and chaotic systems, to model earthquake rupture. Our findings suggest that the chaotic behavior of seismic dynamics, that is, its sensitivity [...]
DeepGEM-EGF: A Bayesian strategy for joint estimates of source-time functions and empirical Green’s functions
Published: 2025-01-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences
An earthquake record is the convolution of source radiation, path propagation and site effects, and instrument response. Isolating the source component requires solving an ill-posed inverse problem. Whether the instability of inferred source parameters arises from varying properties of the source, or from approximations we introduce in solving the problem, remains an open question. Such [...]
Fingerprinting subduction margins using PCA profiles: A data science approach to assessing earthquake hazard
Published: 2025-01-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Tectonics and Structure
Giant earthquakes (MW ≥ 8.5) along subduction margins pose great hazards to coastal societies. While it is generally accepted that geological margin properties play a role, the controls on giant earthquake occurrence remain undetermined. Their long intermittence times and the comparatively short earthquake record obscure any correlations between margin properties and seismicity. This work [...]
Shallow fault zone structure affects rupture dynamics and ground motions of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence to regional distances
Published: 2025-01-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic faults are surrounded by damaged rocks with reduced rigidity and enhanced attenuation. These damaged fault zone structures can amplify seismic waves and affect earthquake dynamics, yet they are typically omitted in physics-based regional ground motion simulations. We report on the significant effects of a shallow, flower-shaped fault zone in foreshock-mainshock 3D dynamic rupture models [...]
Readapting PhaseNet to Laboratory Earthquakes: AEsNet, a Robust Acoustic Emission Picker Illuminating Seismic Signatures of Different Fault Gouge Materials
Published: 2025-01-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
Laboratory acoustic emissions (AEs) represent microslip events analogous to small- scale earthquakes, providing valuable insights into the mechanics of frictional instabilities. With technological advancements in acoustic monitoring, thousands of AE waveforms can now be collected in minutes of experimental time, requiring efficient methods for their detection and analysis. In this study, we [...]
A semi-automated method for constructing three-dimensional models of complex fault networks
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Fault geometry and the connectivity between faults at depth are both important controls on the nucleation, propagation and arrest of earthquake rupture, so modelling these parameters accurately is essential to models of the earthquake cycle. However, simulations involving complex three-dimensional (3D) fault systems rarely explore the sensitivity of results to uncertainties in geometry and [...]
Dynamic earthquake source inversion with Generative Adversarial Network priors
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Dynamic source inversion of earthquakes consists of inferring frictional parameters and initial stress on a fault consistent with recorded seismological and geodetic data and with dynamic earthquake rupture models. In a Bayesian inversion approach, the nonlinear relationship between model parameters and data requires a computationally demanding Monte Carlo (MC) approach. As the computational cost [...]
A simplified physics model for estimating subsurface CO2 storage resources constrained by fault slip potential
Published: 2024-12-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) at rates of several gigatonnes (Gt) per year may be needed to mitigate climate change. However, one major uncertainty is that the risk of injection-induced earthquakes may grow with this scale of deployment. In this work, we develop a tool, named CO2BLOCKSEISM, which uses simplified physics models to screen subsurface storage resources constrained by fault [...]
Faults modulate magma propagation and triggered seismicity: the 2022 São Jorge (Azores) volcanic unrest
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
Understanding the signatures and mechanisms of failed volcanic eruptions is vital for mapping magma plumbing systems and forecasting volcanic events. Geological structures, such as faults and fractures, play a crucial role in guiding magma, but their mechanisms remain unclear due to the lack of 3-D mapping of faults in volcanic regions and sufficiently precise earthquake locations. The [...]
3D dynamic rupture modeling of the 2021 Haiti earthquake used to constrain stress conditions and fault system complexity
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2021 Mw7.2 Haiti earthquake was a devastating event which occurred within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault Zone (EPGFZ). It is not well-understood why neither the 2021 nor the prior 2010 Mw7.0 earthquakes were pure strike slip events and, instead, ruptured with distinct patches of dip slip and strike slip motion on largely separate fault planes. The major characteristics of the earthquake [...]
Comprehensive global dataset of 300,000 uniformly processed shear-wave splitting measurements with regular updates
Published: 2024-12-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic anisotropy can inform us about convective flow in the mantle. Shear waves traveling through azimuthally anisotropic regions split into fast and slow pulses, and measuring the resulting shear-wave splitting provides some of the most direct insights into Earth’s interior dynamics. Shear-wave splitting is a constraint for path-averaged azimuthal anisotropy and is often studied regionally, [...]