Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis

A consistent terminology to communicate ground-related uncertainty

Georg H. Erharter, Suzanne Lacasse, Franz Tschuchnigg

Published: 2024-03-26
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability

Engineering geology is highly affected by uncertainty related to the geology, geotechnical parameters, models used and methods. While the technical aspects of ground-related uncertainty are increasingly investigated, the terminology to communicate uncertainty (i.e. phrases such as “it is very likely that”) has not yet been unified and experts use it however they see fit. The problem arises that [...]

A Novel Methodology for Enhancing Flood Risk Communication: The Nines of Safety

S M Samiul Islam, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2024-01-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Risk Analysis

Flood risk communication helps people plan for and recover from disasters, especially in flood-prone areas. The Nines of Safety (NoS) concept described in this study provides a new perspective for flood risk communication and assessment. The NoS method can help analyze flood risk comprehensively and support decision-makers and the public understand their vulnerability under various conditions. [...]

A Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment for Railroad Network: Case Study for Iowa

Atiye Beyza Cikmaz, Yazeed Alabbad, Enes Yildirim, et al.

Published: 2023-12-30
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis

Climate-induced disasters, particularly floods, pose a substantial risk to human well-being. These risks encompass economic losses, infrastructural damage, disruption of daily life, and potential loss of life. This study focuses on understanding flood risks to critical infrastructure, emphasizing the resilience and reliability of essential services during such disasters. In the United States, the [...]

Data for Critical Infrastructure Network Modelling of Natural Hazard Impacts: Needs and Influence on Model Characteristics

Roman Schotten, Evelyn Mühlhofer, Georgios Alexandros Chatzistefanou, et al.

Published: 2023-11-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis

Natural hazards impact the interdependent infrastructure networks that keep modern society functional. While a variety of critical infrastructure network (CIN) modelling approaches are available to represent CI networks on different scales and analyse the impacts of natural hazards, a recurring challenge for all modelling approaches is the availability and accessibility of sufficiently [...]

Robustness of the evaluation of indirect costs of natural disasters: example of the ARIO model

Samuel Paul Juhel, Adrien Delahais, Vincent Viguié

Published: 2023-10-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis

Given the interconnectedness of economies and the prevalence of just-in-time production processes, even small interruptions to production caused by natural disasters can lead to great indirect economic impacts. A substantial body of literature on this subject exists, notably with the help of input-output analysis, CGE and agent-based models. However, such models rely on parameters and data which [...]

Site selection of desert solar farms based on heterogeneous sand flux

Guoshuai Li, Lihai Tan, Bao Yang, et al.

Published: 2023-10-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geomorphology, Risk Analysis

Site selection for building solar farms in deserts is crucial and must consider the dune threats associated with sand flux, such as sand burial and dust contamination. Understanding the changes in sand flux can optimize the site selection of desert solar farms. Here we use the ERA5-Land hourly wind data with 0.1°×0.1° resolution to calculate the yearly sand flux from 1950 to 2022. The mean of [...]

FloodGame: An Interactive 3D Serious Game on Flood Mitigation for Disaster Awareness and Education

Bekir Zahit Demiray, Yusuf Sermet, Enes Yildirim, et al.

Published: 2023-09-09
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Risk Analysis, Science and Mathematics Education

The number and devastating impacts of natural disasters have grown significantly worldwide, and floods are one of the most dangerous and frequent natural disasters. Recent studies emphasize the importance of public awareness in disaster preparedness and response activities. FloodGame is designed as a web-based interactive serious game geared towards educating K-12 and college students and raising [...]

Social Vulnerability and Climate Risk Assessment for Agricultural Communities in The United States

Tugkan Tanir, Enes Yildirim, Celso M. Ferreira, et al.

Published: 2023-08-18
Subjects: Agriculture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geographic Information Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Risk Analysis, Spatial Science

Floods and droughts significantly affect agricultural activities and pose a threat to food security by subsequently reducing agricultural production. The impact of flood events is distributed disproportionately among agricultural communities based on their socio-economic fabric. Understanding climate-related hazards is critical for planning mitigation measures to secure vulnerable communities. [...]

A Web-based Decision Support Framework for Optimizing Road Network Accessibility and Emergency Facility Allocation During Flooding

Yazeed Alabbad, Jerry Mount, Ann Campbell, et al.

Published: 2023-08-03
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Risk Analysis

Transportation systems can be significantly affected by flooding, leading to physical damage and subsequent adverse impacts such as increased travel distance to essential services. Even though flooding is a frequently recurring phenomenon that can affect thousands of people per event, there are limited accessible online tools available for analyzing and visualizing flood risk for supporting [...]

Integrating Climate Risk into Long-Term Energy Planning: A Critical Review

James Doss-Gollin, Yash Vijay Amonkar, Katlyn Schmeltzer, et al.

Published: 2023-07-15
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Earth Sciences, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis

Electricity systems face substantial and growing climate risks which are escalating due to electrification, renewable energy intermittency, population changes, and the intensifying impacts of climate change such as extreme temperatures and weather-induced infrastructure damage. This critical review investigates climate risks to the electricity sector and scrutinizes the methodologies used to [...]

CLIMATIC DETERMINANTS OF COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS IN UGANDA: 2020-2022

Justine Okello, Luke Nyakarahuka, James Muleme, et al.

Published: 2023-07-14
Subjects: Risk Analysis

Background: Infectious diseases have proven to be among the greatest challenges to life in the Anthropocene era. Their repeated and cyclical occurrences coupled with varying variants, and rapidly changing climatic conditions within this century threaten to take the world back to the “pre-development era” in the absence of corrective measures. We designed a research study to determine the [...]

Assessing Precipitation Trends that may inform Aging Dam Overtopping across the USA

Jeongwoo Hwang, Upmanu Lall

Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis

In many cases, persistent or recurrent synoptic circulation patterns lead to multiple wet days that precede an extreme rainfall event. The joint occurrence of high antecedent rainfall and extreme rainfall defines a compound event that may pose a high risk for overtopping of aging dams. Our novel analysis assesses whether there are significant trends across the conterminous United States (CONUS) [...]

OpenStreetMap for Multi-Faceted Climate Risk Assessments

Evelyn Mühlhofer, Chahan M. Kropf, David N. Bresch, et al.

Published: 2023-06-29
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Risk Analysis

Natural hazards pose significant risks to human lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of climate risks for effective adaptation planning and risk management. However, climate risk assessments mostly focus on economic asset values and infrastructures such as roads and buildings, because publicly available data on more diverse exposures are scarce. The [...]

Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems - past, present, and under climate change

Sarah Hülsen, Robert I. McDonald, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, et al.

Published: 2023-06-28
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Risk Analysis

Coastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service provision, in the past and under climate change. We employ the probabilistic, event-based CLIMADA [...]

Non-structural Flood Mitigation Optimization at Community Scale: Middle Cedar Case Study

Enes Yildirim, Yazeed Alabbad, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis

Flooding is the leading natural hazard in Iowa and has resulted in billions of dollars of damage to properties and critical infrastructure over the past couple of decades. Land alterations, urbanization, and changing precipitation regimes increase the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Considering the increasing risk, flood mitigation efforts are significant to reduce future losses. In this [...]

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