Preprints
There are 8000 Preprints listed.
A scaling law for stagnant-lid convection with composite visco-elasto-plastic rheology: application to Europa's ice shell
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, Tectonics and Structure
Scaling laws relating the Nusselt number (Nu) and the Rayleigh number (Ra) are the standard tool for translating numerical models of convection into predictions of surface heat flux and the thicknesses of the stagnant lid and the rheological sublayer. Existing scaling frameworks for icy moons normalise this relationship using a temperature-dependence parameter, γ, calibrated against viscous and [...]
Magmatic Fertility Indicators of the Chagai Arc: A Systematic Review of Published Whole-Rock Geochemistry and Implications for Porphyry Cu–Au Prospectivity
Published: 2026-07-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The porphyry copper–gold (Cu–Au) deposits of the world are the primary source for copper and are significant producers of gold and molybdenum, and the genesis is always linked to the geochemical characteristics of the arc magmas from which the deposits crystallised. The Chagai Arc of western Pakistan is a Neotethyan subduction-related magmatic belt with several significant porphyry prospects, [...]
Anticipatory skill and structural biases of a major global risk assessment
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Life Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Calls to navigate the global polycrisis have multiplied, yet one of the most visible systemic risk assessments—the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Reports (GRRs)—has not been evaluated, particularly with regard to their predictive value. We analyse all GRRs from 2006–2024 by reconstructing and comparing survey-based risk likelihoods with a multi-decadal database of national shocks, and by [...]
Fabric- and fluid-constrained ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology of the northeastern Carajás Province, Amazonian Craton: separating hydrothermalism from Rhyacian and Orosirian reworking of Archean crust
Published: 2026-08-12
Subjects: Geology, Tectonics and Structure
The Carajás Province, southeastern Amazonian Craton, is a polycyclic Archean block in which the ages of rocks, hydrothermal minerals and tectonic fabrics need not coincide. We integrate multiscale structural analysis with fabric-constrained ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology of amphibole, biotite and white mica selected from mapped fabrics or well-defined hydrothermal assemblages. Although the province [...]
A Detailed Picture of Haiti’s Seismicity Given by Deep Learning and Template Matching
Published: 2026-01-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Haiti regularly experiences destructive earthquakes, but seismic monitoring in the region has historically been limited. Recent deployments of citizen‐hosted RaspberryShake seismometers and temporary seismic deployment following the 2021 Mw 7.2 earthquake provide new data to study the region’s seismotectonics. However, high noise levels at many stations, in particular the RaspberryShake ones, [...]
Development Length and Transport Regimes of Buoyant Plastics in Open-Channel Flows
Published: 2026-02-02
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Recent studies suggest that the vertical distribution of positively buoyant plastic particles in turbulent open-channel flows can be described by a modified Rouse profile. However, experimental evidence also indicates that floating particles often remain confined to the air–water interface due to surface tension, with limited vertical exchange. These observations suggest a tension in the [...]
WITHDRAWN: Seasonal, Interannual and Long-term Sea-level Changes in the Arabian Gulf
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Life Sciences
Manganese Oxidation States Reveal a Continental-Scale Climate-Driven Redox Gradient in Upland Soils
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Biochemistry, Geochemistry, Soil Science
Soil redox conditions regulate soil organic carbon (SOC) persistence and nutrient availability, yet macroclimatic controls in uplands remain unclear because O2 depletion reflects the interactions of moisture, labile carbon, soil texture, and microbial demand. Here we pair manganese (Mn) oxidation state, an integrative redox proxy, with effective water balance (mean annual precipitation minus [...]
Identifying Lead Components in Uganda’s Water Infrastructure Supply: A Supply Chain Mapping and Intervention-Identifying Analysis
Published: 2026-07-23
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Lead (Pb) exposure through drinking water causes a substantive preventable disease burden. The primary source of Pb in drinking water is through Pb-containing infrastructure, including leaded-brass fittings, galvanized iron/steel pipes, and some plastics. As the source of Pb through drinking water is widely known, its prevention through a supply chain intervention is possible. This is true in [...]
Intermediate-Evidence Substitution: A Benchmark Design Methodology for Isolating Numerical Derivation from Protocol Execution in Deterministic Climate Verification
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We introduce \textbf{Intermediate-Evidence Substitution (IES)}, a benchmark design methodology that changes evidence granularity while preserving task semantics: decisive aggregate statistics in benchmark evidence are replaced with the raw intermediate values from which they are derived, while task labels, decision protocols, thresholds, and evaluation criteria remain unchanged. IES functions as [...]
Glycerolipids track sinking particle sources and remineralization in two ocean basins
Published: 2026-07-15
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Geochemistry, Oceanography
The biological carbon pump is a major control on ocean carbon storage. On long time scales, changes in the biological carbon pump modulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. Attenuation in sinking carbon fluxes is derived from a combination of remineralization by bacteria, zooplankton, and fragmentation. However, the importance of these attenuation processes varies spatially and [...]
Reliability-Constrained Statistical Analysis of NASA CNEOS Fireball Events: Implications for Bolide Population Studies
Published: 2026-07-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Planetary Sciences, Statistical Models
The NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball Database is one of the most widely used resources for investigating global bolide populations. However, variations in event reliability, detection thresholds, and observational coverage introduce potential selection biases that may influence inferred population statistics. While the database has been extensively employed in studies of [...]
Open at the interface, closed at the core: neutrality claims in AI‑enabled geoscience infrastructure focusing on Africa – The case of Deep‑Time Digital Earth and GeoGPT
Published: 2026-07-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology
Geological data has become strategic infrastructure for resource assessment, investment negotiation, and economic sovereignty. Remotely hosted big data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) platforms are increasingly promoted for geoscience in the Global South, particularly Africa. Whether such platforms are genuinely geopolitically unaligned, and how this can be verified, has direct implications for [...]
Microseismic Detection in Borehole DAS as a Spatial Localization Problem: Cross-System Validation at the 2024 Utah FORGE Stimulation
Published: 2026-07-25
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) turns borehole fibers into dense seismic arrays, but converting terabytes of continuous strain-rate data into reliable real-time detections remains a bottleneck for induced-seismicity monitoring. We argue that the limiting question for DAS microseismic monitoring has been posed incorrectly. Existing detectors ask whether an event is present in a record; on a [...]
Satellite observations and energy balance constrain the thermal footprint of a hyperscale data-centre cluster
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Whether hyperscale data centres (DCs) warm their surroundings divides current evidence: a coarse-resolution satellite preprint attributes ~2 °C of land-surface-temperature (LST) warming to facilities worldwide (Marinoni et al 2026), while peer-reviewed transects near Phoenix measure +0.7-0.9 °C of near-ground air warming a few hundred metres downwind (Sailor et al 2026). Prospective [...]