Preprints
There are 8000 Preprints listed.
When does array moveout help borehole phase picking? A leave-one-site-out, confound-free benchmark of array versus per-trace deep learning
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-learning phase pickers are increasingly deployed on borehole microseismic arrays, yet two questions central to operational monitoring remain poorly quantified: how well such models generalize to a site they were not trained on, and whether the cross-station moveout that an array provides actually improves that generalization. We give the first confound-free answer using the AMBER benchmark [...]
CSUFlow25: Colorado Streamflow Ungaged Prediction Models
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
CSUFlow25 is an updated set of statistical models for predicting streamflow in ungaged basins in Colorado, USA. It builds on the earlier CSUFlow18 models (Eurich et al., 2021) by extending the streamflow record from water years 2001–2018 to 2001–2024, expanding the pool of candidate predictor variables, and increasing the number of streamflow metrics predicted. Models were developed from a [...]
Data-efficient prediction of rare earth leaching from industrial residues with physics-constrained machine learning
Published: 2026-10-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geochemistry, Mining Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coal ash, mine-water sludge, red mud and phosphogypsum contain rare earth elements, and each new feedstock needs its own leaching recipe. LixaLearn couples a small neural network to closed-form rate laws for four metal hosts (exchange sites, fast-dissolving minerals, slow-dissolving minerals and a locked fraction), with part of the fast host limited by the solubility of its mineral. The network [...]
Obliquity limit of megathrust earthquakes
Published: 2026-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The largest earthquakes occur on subduction-zone megathrusts, where plates commonly converge obliquely to trenches and generate trench-parallel strain. How this strain is partitioned between megathrust slip and upper-plate deformation remains uncertain, hindering earthquake recurrence estimates. Here we combine global slab geometry, plate motions, and earthquake focal mechanisms to quantify [...]
A process-based framework for regional landslide debris inundation hazard assessment: application to the West Coast region of New Zealand
Published: 2026-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Regional landslide debris inundation hazard assessments commonly rely on scenario-based formulations that require explicit enumeration of discrete landslide events. While effective for local studies, these approaches are computationally intensive, sensitive to scenario design choices, and difficult to apply consistently at regional scales where landslide catalogues are incomplete and long-term [...]
Stable estimates of when global temperature thresholds will be crossed: least-squares fits as the end date of the fitted span is reduced
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimates of when global mean temperature will reach 2°C above the 1850–1900 mean are generally derived from emissions scenarios and climate models rather than from the observed temperature record itself. This study does the latter by progressively truncating observed temperature records at their most recent end and fitting different curve types to fixed-width spans. It examines both the [...]
Morphometric and Sedimentological Analysis of Shahnur River Basin, Amravati District, Maharashtra, India
Published: 2026-08-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The given study focuses on the morphometric and sedimentological characteristics of Shahnur River Basin. It is situated in the basalt dominated area of Deccan Traps of Amravati District, Maharashtra, India. The basin has various features to investigate the interaction between the lithological control, structural influences, and fluvial processes. Using the SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data [...]
Stormwater storage among remnant, degraded and restored urban prairies and wetlands of varying ecological quality
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
In response to increasing intensification of land use and more frequent and severe flooding, urban green spaces and natural areas are being relied upon to provide additional stormwater storage. Natural grasslands and wetlands provide extensive ecosystem services, including stormwater storage. These types of ecosystems were once widespread across the globe, but much of this habitat has been lost [...]
Hydrological contaminant mobilisation from thawing permafrost in Alaska
Published: 2026-08-05
Subjects: Life Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Global warming and permafrost thaw increasingly threaten contaminated sites across Alaska, altering contaminant mobilisation risks in sensitive ecosystems and communities. To assess this threat, we used the SIRIUS database to identify 1261 active contaminated sites within Alaska’s permafrost region, noting that many sit near lakes, rivers, and coastlines. We evaluated current and future [...]
Global industrial disruption following nuclear war
Published: 2024-12-05
Subjects: Agriculture, International and Area Studies, Other Geography, Risk Analysis
Nuclear war poses catastrophic risks not only through its immediate effects and potential nuclear winter, but also through the disruption of industrial production on which modern civilization depends. We first derive a nuclear weapon destruction radius scaling relationship from historical data and fire modelling and combine it with OpenStreetMap industrial facility locations to calculate direct [...]
Plume Origin Localisation with Computer Vision
Published: 2026-08-05
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite remote sensing has become a critical tool for monitoring, measuring, and mitigating methane emissions globally. Reliable attribution of methane plumes to their source facility is needed to enable emission mitigation action, robust emissions accounting, and regulatory oversight. Although experts can manually attribute plumes to individual facilities, automated approaches are required for [...]
Satellite-Based Assessment of Terrestrial Water Storage Change and Groundwater Stress in Zhob District, Balochistan
Published: 2026-08-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Groundwater underpins domestic supply and irrigated agriculture across much of Balochistan, Pakistan, and satellite-based subsidence studies have documented severe groundwater-related stress around Quetta, Gulistan, Pishin, Mastung, and Kalat districts. Zhob District, in northern Balochistan, is comparably dependent on tubewell and karez irrigation but has not been covered by any published [...]
A brief history of equifinality in hydrological modelling: from GST to GLUE to ML
Published: 2026-09-25
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
AbstractEquifinality has shaped hydrological modelling for five decades. The equifinality thesis rejects the concept of an “optimal” model in favour of the possibility that different model structures or parameter sets can provide similarly acceptable representations of a system when uncertainties in the forcing and evaluation data are considered, especially when those data are subject to [...]
Biases due to widespread use of low-cost sensors for urban heat stress assessments
Published: 2025-11-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Urban heat stress is an area of critical research interest due to its relevance for public health and policy. Given the lack of operational-grade weather stations within cities, different types of low-cost sensors have been used to assess urban heat stress. However, these sensors are traditionally not designed for capturing fine scale differences in temperature and humidity (i.e., the main [...]
Split-Spectrum InSAR for Reliable Ionospheric Correction: A Critical Review of Uncertainty, Validation, and Reproducibility
Published: 2026-08-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Split-spectrum interferometry provides a physically grounded means of separating dispersive ionospheric phase from non-dispersive deformation-related phase in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations. Its practical reliability, however, depends on processing choices that are often reported incompletely and validated inconsistently. This critical narrative review examines the physical [...]