Preprints
There are 6068 Preprints listed.
Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
To analyse the risks from Tropical Cyclones (TC) to electricity supply, we have combined a large ensemble of TC simulations with a spatial model of power networks and people served, for the entire TC belt globally. The model of electricity power failure, measured in terms of population disrupted, was calibrated against nighttime lights satellite imagery of historic TC events. Use of spatially [...]
Added value of a priori bias correcting dynamically downscaled data for application to species distribution models - a case study for coastal British Columbia
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Predicting changes in species distributions under climate change relies on high-quality climate projections. In this case study of coastal British Columbia, we prepare and evaluate two sets of climate data - a priori bias corrected and non bias corrected dynamically downscaled historical projections of Community Earth System Model 2 simulations. We compare these datasets with downscaled ERA5 [...]
Moist adiabatic scaling explains mean and fast upper-level jet stream wind response to climate change
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The upper-level jet stream exhibits a robust increase in strength and shear under climate change. Previous work also noted a fast-get-faster response and connected it diagnostically to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Here we derive a moist adiabatic scaling that explains the upper-level jet stream wind response. Given the daily surface air temperature distribution and assuming a moist adiabatic [...]
Unraveling Southern Ocean Diatom Diversity Across the Eocene/Oligocene Transition
Published: 2025-09-09
Subjects: Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Paleobiology, Paleontology
The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) was a critical interval of global cooling and circulation change that reshaped marine ecosystems. However, current knowledge of diatom diversity and community dynamics during this interval relies mainly on biostratigraphic compilations, which largely document common species and thus likely underestimate true diversity. This study provides a more complete [...]
Relation of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with observed and predicted ENSO indices
Published: 2025-09-09
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences global climate variability, including Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The Niño-3.4 index has long been used to characterize ENSO. However, new ENSO indices have been proposed in recent years. Here, in the context of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, we compared Niño-3.4 to three modern ENSO indices: the relative Niño-3.4 index, the ENSO [...]
Sill intrusion and compressive regimes: Examples of intrusion-induced compression in host-rocks during sill emplacement in the Faroe Islands
Published: 2025-09-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sills of predominantly mafic compositions are ubiquitous in many onshore and offshore extension-related sedimentary basins worldwide and do in some instances also appear in extension-related volcanic settings such as those in North Atlantic islands like NW Britain, Iceland and the Faroe Islands. Both of these settings are typically composed of sub-horizontal layered strata, in which individual [...]
Shear-wave splitting measured for permanent reservoir monitoring systems: an example from the Snorre field
Published: 2025-09-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Microseismic monitoring of offshore CO2 storage projects is likely to include some deployment of offshore sensors. To improve the value proposition of this monitoring infrastructure, it is important to consider what other information can be gained about the CO2 storage complex and the surrounding region. Shear-wave splitting is one potential source of added value to microseismic monitoring of CO2 [...]
Secondary Education Students’ Misconceptions on Principles of Geology: Minerals and Rocks
Published: 2025-09-06
Subjects: Education
The purpose of this research is to investigate the misconceptions related to geological concepts among Secondary Education students in the region of Achaia, Greece. The study focuses on both Lower Secondary Education (Gymnasium, grades 7–9) and Upper Secondary Education, including General and Vocational Education (grades 10–12). Previous research has shown that students entering Lower Secondary [...]
Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events
Published: 2025-09-06
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate
As the climate warms, interacting weather extremes such as sequential heat events pose complex risks to societies. Regarding global agriculture, laboratory experiments suggest that early crop exposure to heat may either confer tolerance or enhance vulnerability to subsequent heat during the critical crop flowering stage. We show that warm early-seasons improve crop yield potential, particularly [...]
INTEGRATED DUAL-SOURCING PRACTICAL FRAMEWORK: COMBINING WASTEWATER REUSE AND DESALINATION IN A TWO-PRONGED APPROACH FOR RESILIENT URBAN WATER SECURITY IN TAIZ, YEMEN.
Published: 2025-09-05
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
This study proposes a novel paradigm integrating wastewater reuse and desalination for Taiz's water security in Yemen. This hydrological circuit of multiple stages transforms wastewater streams into value-added products, establishing a robust dual-sourcing matrix that mitigates the linear exploitation of resources. The proposed framework strives to generate 0.8 kWh of electricity with 1 m³ of [...]
Passive Monitoring of in situ Stress Using Shear-Wave Splitting: Applications to CO2 Storage and Beyond
Published: 2025-09-05
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Characterising the in situ stress field is important for a range of industrial applications, such as geological CO₂ storage, geothermal projects, hydrocarbon extraction, geological disposal facilities, and for natural seismic hazard assessment. Shear-wave splitting is a passive measurement which can be used to passively monitor changes in the in situ stress field. We combine borehole stress and [...]
Quantification of natural CO2 emissions from mofettes using a low-cost sensor network at the Starzach site in south-west Germany
Published: 2025-09-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
We present a top-down method to derive carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from mofettes, using only point measurement time series at irregular locations. Notably, no wind vector information is needed, as gas transport is derived from cross-correlations between sensor stations and subsequently integrated using Gauss’ divergence theorem. The method is applied to an existing low-cost sensor network at [...]
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Risk Analysis
Food is the foundation of our society. We often take it for granted, but stocks are rarely available for longer than a year, and food production can be disrupted by catastrophic events, both locally and globally. To highlight such major risks to the food system, we analyzed FAO crop production data from 1961 to 2023 to find the largest crop production shock for every country and identify its [...]
Assessing the Predictive Skill of Global Climate Models for Long and Short Rains in the Greater Horn of Africa
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal forecasts play a crucial role in delivering early warnings to various sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. The Greater Horn of Africa region depends on rainfed agriculture, hence the need for accurate forecasts. This study uses Global Climate Models (GCMs) and satellite precipitation observations to assess the predictability of observed precipitation by deploying traditional [...]
Hunga eruption on 15 January 2022: Was there a precursor plume one hour before the eruption?
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Volcanology
This note is aimed at the examination of a precursor plume one hour before the paroxysmal Hunga eruption on 15 January 2022, following a claim made in Van Eaton et al. (2023). After examination of a number of satellite and meteorological data, it is concluded in agreement with Prata et al. (2024) that this claim results from a misinterpretation of satellite imagery.