Preprints
There are 5978 Preprints listed.
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting [...]
Fast and full characterization of large earthquakes from prompt elastogravity signals
Published: 2024-07-11
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Prompt ElastoGravity Signals (PEGS) are light-speed gravity-induced signals recorded by seismometers before the arrival of seismic waves. They have raised interest for early warning applications but their weak amplitudes, close to the background seismic noise even for large earthquakes, have questioned PEGS actual potential for operational use. A deep-learning model has recently demonstrated its [...]
Global distribution and governing dynamics of submesoscale density fronts
Published: 2024-07-11
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Interplay of slow-slip faults beneath Mexico City induces intense seismicity over months
Published: 2024-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In February 2023, a long seismic sequence began in western Mexico City causing widespread panic and some damage to housing infrastructure. On May 11 and December 14, two Mw3.2 mainshocks occurred at less than 700 m depth. Unprecedented satellite interferograms captured tectonic deformations in the two epicentral zones during the days surrounding the earthquakes. Data analysis revealed extended [...]
Climate equivalence metrics for airline contrail mitigation
Published: 2024-07-10
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Studies, Sustainability
The aviation sector faces a significant challenge in mitigating climate change due to the dual impact of CO2 emissions and contrail formation. Contrails, which form under specific atmospheric conditions, contribute to global warming. Mitigating contrails, however, can require flight path diversions, leading to increased fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This study evaluates various climate [...]
Pre-Cordilleran mantle metasomatism preserved in alkali basalts of Isla Isabel, México
Published: 2024-07-09
Subjects: Geochemistry, Geology
The presence of HIMU (high-238U/204Pb) signatures in ocean island basalts has long been used to argue that ancient oceanic crust has been tectonically recycled into the mantle sources of plume-derived volcanic hotspots such as St. Helena or Mangaia. However, alternative hypotheses regarding the origins of HIMU signatures have also been put forward. This paper addresses the origins of HIMU-like Pb [...]
A non-equilibrium slurry model for planetary cores with application to Earth’s F-layer
Published: 2024-07-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mineral Physics
Slurry regions may exist in the cores of several terrestrial bodies and are expected to influence the dynamics of deep planetary interiors and the viability of maintaining global magnetic fields. Here we develop a two-component slurry model of the lowermost outer core of the Earth (the F-layer). In contrast to most previous models of slurries in planetary cores, we explicitly model the [...]
Satellite survey sheds new light on global solid waste methane emissions
Published: 2024-07-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Anthropogenic methane emissions are the second most important contributor to climate change, and their rapid reductions could help decrease near-term warming. Solid waste emits methane through the decay of organic material, which amounts to about 10% of total anthropogenic methane emissions. Satellite instruments enable monitoring of strong methane hotspots, including many strongly emitting urban [...]
Evaluating the Flood Vulnerability of Urban Areas in Polk County, Iowa using Social-Ecological-Technological Framework
Published: 2024-07-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis
The escalating prominence of floods globally, with their catastrophic potential to inflict substantial losses in terms of both human lives and economic resources, underscores their significance. Particularly susceptible to flooding between May and July, the US Midwest faces heightened risks during this critical period, characterized by the highest average precipitation rates of the year. Flood [...]
Excitable Dynamics of Neoproterozoic to Early Paleozoic Atmospheric and Ocean Oxygen
Published: 2024-07-05
Subjects: Biogeochemistry
The geochemical carbon isotope and redox proxy record indicates that Earth’s surface oxygenation involved a prolonged period of extreme variability in atmospheric and oceanic oxygen, spanning from the early Neoproterozoic to the early Paleozoic. This variability has been linked to external tectonic and evolutionary forcings, as well as to internal nonlinear feedbacks related to the [...]
Building quantitative skills with a simplified physical model of coastal storm deposition
Published: 2024-07-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Educational Methods, Geomorphology, Higher Education, Scholarship of Teaching and Learning
This article describes an exercise for a physical laboratory experiment designed to enable physical geography students to practice transferrable quantitative skills through inquiry-based learning. The exercise is a deliberately simplified physical model of storm-driven coastal overwash typical of low-lying coastal barrier systems. The experiment can be trialled in anything from a baking pan or [...]
Uranium-series isotopes as tracers of physical and chemical weathering in glacial sediments from Taylor Valley, Antarctica
Published: 2024-07-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Glaciology, Soil Science
The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica formed by extensive glacial erosion, yet currently exhibit hyperarid polar conditions characterized by limited chemical and physical weathering. Efficient chemical weathering occurs when moisture is available, and polythermal subglacial conditions may accommodate ongoing mechanical weathering and valley incision. Taylor Valley hosts several Pleistocene [...]
Micro-Scale Mapping of Soil Organic Carbon: The Potential of Soft X-Ray Spectromicroscopy
Published: 2024-07-04
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Sciences, Soil Science
Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in soil fertility, productivity, and global carbon cycling. However, the mechanisms governing SOC persistence and turnover are not fully understood, hindering effective carbon management strategies. Especially limiting are challenges to visualize and characterize spatial distribution patterns of SOC within the intact soil. This study presents a novel [...]
Unraveling the crop yield response under ... through the deployment of a drought index
Published: 2024-07-04
Subjects: Engineering
Extensive research has explored the impact of shading on vegetation growth and crop yield (CY) under agrivoltaic (APV) systems. These studies have revealed a notable connection between shading and CYs, with certain crop varieties showing benefits from shadings e.g., Berries and Leafy Vegetables, Forage remaining largely unaffected, and some crops e.g., Cereals, Grain Legumes, Fruits, and Root [...]
Mechanisms for upstream migration of firn aquifer drainage: preliminary observations of Helheim Glacier, Greenland
Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Glaciology
Surface meltwater can influence subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics if it reaches the ice sheet’s base. Firn aquifers store meltwater and drain into wide crevasses marking the aquifer’s downstream boundary, indicating water from firn aquifers drives hydrofracture to establish the upglacier-most surface-to-bed hydraulic connections. Yet, sparse observations limit our understanding of the [...]