Preprints
There are 8001 Preprints listed.
Linking Atmospheric Transport Resistance to Extreme Snowfall Risk Using Non-Stationary Extreme Value Models
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study develops a hybrid physical--statistical framework for evaluating extreme snowfall risk along the Sea of Japan coast by integrating causal-network analysis, Dijkstra-based atmospheric transport physics, and non-stationary extreme value theory. Using a 135-year record (1889--2024) of annual maximum snow-depth anomalies from 23 meteorological stations, we first quantify atmospheric [...]
Material demand and supply-chain assessment of U.S. electricity system transitions
Published: 2026-08-30
Subjects: Engineering
Decarbonizing the U.S. electricity sector will require rapid deployment of generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure, increasing demand for materials. We develop an integrated framework that quantifies annual and cumulative material demand from 2027 to 2050 across an ensemble of U.S. electricity futures spanning alternative policy, technology, and economic assumptions. Across the [...]
Fixed-band criteria for local constant-Q models in heterogeneous fractional seismic attenuation
Published: 2026-07-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Local constant-\(Q\) models are widely used to describe seismic attenuation, but their validity is unclear when attenuation and dispersion vary spatially over the wavelengths being modelled. Variable-order fractional wave models can represent such heterogeneity, yet no quantitative criterion relates spatial order variation to the departure from local constant-\(Q\) behaviour. We derive a [...]
Thermal migration and climatic de-territorialisation of North American professional sports leagues, 1950–2025
Published: 2026-07-28
Subjects: Geographic Information Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Physical and Environmental Geography
Over the past seven decades, the four major North American professional sports leagues (NHL, MLB, NBA, NFL) have expanded and relocated across the continent, shifting their collective geography towards the Sun Belt. We quantify the climatic consequences of this movement by combining the complete franchise location history of the four leagues from 1950 to 2025 with ERA5-Land reanalysis data and [...]
Impact of Soil Data Representation on Streamflow Modelling: A Contiguous-Object Connectivity Approach Case Study in Switzerland
Published: 2026-10-05
Subjects: Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Hydrological models often rely on soil data to represent water partitioning, storage and release within a catchment. However, differences in soil data representation may be obscured by calibration when performance is evaluated primarily against streamflow. This study investigates how alternative soil datasets influence streamflow performance, internal hydrological processes, and parameter [...]
Reconstructing the P-T-t evolution recorded in garnet through growth and multicomponent diffusion modelling
Published: 2026-08-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology
Interpreting the P –T evolution of a region recorded in garnet requires understanding of how the major elements in garnet (Fe, Mg, Mn and Ca) are modified by diffusion. We present an integrated approach that combines thermodynamic modelling with MAGEMin and multicomponent diffusion modelling using UWDiffusion, built on underworld3, to constrain the P–T–t evolution of a garnet pyroxenite from the [...]
Ultramafic weathering in tropical volcanic arcs: Geochemistry and inverse modeling of rivers draining the Zambales Ophiolite Complex (ZOC), Philippines
Published: 2026-10-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mafic and ultramafic rocks are highly susceptible to silicate weathering, a key negative feedback which modulates atmospheric CO2 over geological timescales. The tectonic exposure of these reactive lithologies, such as the Neogene uplift of the volcanic islands in maritime Southeast Asia, has been hypothesized to enhance this global feedback and contribute to long-term global cooling. However, [...]
Residential Structure-Resolved Fuel Loading for Emissions Estimation in a Wildland–Urban Interface Fire
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Engineering
Fuels in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) include a variety of anthropogenic materials connected to historical and socio-economic backgrounds in addition to biomass. Yet current emission inventories rely on uniform fuel loading factors (FLFs) that treat all structures as compositionally identical. In this study, we develop a structure-resolved combustible fuel inventory for ~5,400 single-family [...]
On-Fault Parameters and Fault Connectivity Control Synthetic Earthquake Catalogs and 30-Year Rupture Probabilities in RSQSim Simulations of the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The faults in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area in California have long been known as a source of seismic hazard. This potential for large earthquakes, paired with high population density and economic activity leads to high seismic risk in the Bay Area. In this study we utilize the physics-based earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate synthetic earthquake catalogs for the San Francisco East Bay. [...]
Silicate Weathering Dynamics in the Kasaï Basin and Implications for Enhanced Rock Weathering Applications in the Tropics
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Silicate weathering is one of the ultimate geologic sinks of atmospheric CO2. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW), aiming at accelerating this natural process to mitigate anthropogenic warming, has received significant attention due to high projected CO2 removal potential and possible agricultural co-benefits applications in the tropics. Yet, the natural baseline of chemical weathering in low-relief, [...]
Floating algal beds and methane dynamics: a potential positive feedback loop
Published: 2026-08-06
Subjects: Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Eutrophic shallow freshwater ecosystems often develop floating filamentous microalgae on their surface during spring and summer, known as floating algal beds (FLAB). In recent years, FLAB has become more frequent and pronounced due to rising temperatures and drier conditions, sometimes even covering the entire surface of water bodies. New evidence suggests that phytoplankton can produce methane [...]
Trigger or driver? Tracing the role of climate variability since the Little Ice Age in the abandonment of mountain villages in the Eastern Pyrenees: evidence from historical documents
Published: 2026-10-01
Subjects: Environmental Studies
In recent decades, rural depopulation has emerged as a widespread phenomenon across much of Europe, driven by shared underlying processes but shaped by region-specific dynamics. Understanding how climate variability interacts with socioeconomic dynamics to drive long-term settlement abandonment is critical in the context of current global change. High-mountain regions are particularly sensitive [...]
Designing decision-centric early warning systems for climate tipping points: the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre as a test case
Published: 2026-08-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography
Early warning systems (EWS) for climate tipping point must support decisions to be useful. Using the potential near-term Subpolar Gyre tipping point as a test case, we develop a pre-elicitation framework linking Earth System science with decision-making. We show that no single EWS can meet diverse decision needs. Instead, the framework identifies shared decision architectures and information [...]
Mapping landslide change and volume with repeat airborne LiDAR after the May 2023 Emilia-Romagna event: slope-dependent detection limits and lowered areas
Published: 2026-10-31
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Geomorphology, Remote Sensing
Landslide inventories are validated against repeat topography by comparing the ground that changes beyond a detection limit inside mapped polygons with the same fraction on stable ground. Stable ground is gentler than landslides, and LiDAR noise grows with slope. We measure the consequence for the May 2023 Emilia-Romagna event, Italy, with four pairs of 0.5 m airborne LiDAR on 919 river-corridor [...]
Northward Dust-Induced Shift of Tropical Atlantic Precipitation in CMIP6 Models
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Life Sciences
Mineral dust has substantially increased since the pre-industrial period, particularly over North Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. However, the impacts of increased dust burden over the tropical Atlantic Ocean on the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and regional precipitation remain poorly resolved. Here, we analyze seven CMIP6 models participating in the Aerosol Chemistry [...]